Saturday, 12 July 2014
While examining the distances from Constantinople to Vienna earlier, I was suddenly struck with the uncomfortable proximity of the Russians to the two German capitals after 1815. The Russian forward garrisons in western Poland were only about one-hundred and eighty miles from Berlin, while their forward garrisons in southern Poland were only about two-hundred and twenty miles from Vienna, and one-hundred and sixty miles from Budapest.
Granted Austria was in the better position since the Riesengebirge and the Carpathians throw themselves between Poland and the two Habsburg capitals. Poor Prussia had no defences at all. It was a straight shot across flat ground to the capital on the Spree.
Opposed to that, it’s over four-hundred miles from East Prussia to St. Petersburg, and six-hundred miles to Moscow. From Galicia it’s about seven-hundred and fifty miles to St. Petersburg and close to six-hundred miles to Moscow. Attacking St. Petersburg would be pointless, since without a navy that city would never fall to siege, neither Austria or Prussia had a navy of any value, while even if the Austrian Navy could make it to the Baltic the Russian Navy was better still and would sink it.
With Lake Ladoga to the east and Neva Bay to the west the city could be supplied indefinitely, while any attack on Neva Bay would have to overcome the obstacle of the Kronstadt which could easily hit any ship in the narrow channels on either side of it.
With the Russian Navy and the guns of Kronstadt in combination, nothing was entering Neva Bay. I doubt even the Royal Navy could have forced its way in. This why I have concluded that St. Petersburg is in one of the most beautiful strategic positions imaginable.
Why do you think Napoleon attacked Moscow even though Moscow was no longer the capital of Russia? Because attacking St. Petersburg was a pointless waste of time. Why do you think that St. Petersburg survived nearly four years of siege by the Germans in WWII and never fell? Because its geographic location is the best I ever saw, with the exception of Constantinople, of course.
So in many respects Russia seemed like the new Ottoman Empire for the German Powers. Their imminent danger forced them together in resistance, especially Prussia’s danger. Austria had a solid chance of repulsing the Russians from the line of the Riesengebirge and the Carpathians, albeit at the sacrifice of Galicia.
Prussia was completely exposed. By itself Prussia was doomed, so Prussia needed Austria. St. Petersburg wasn’t going to fall without a navy that neither of them possessed, and attacking Moscow would have yielded basically the same results as Napoleon’s invasion. So Russia’s strategic position against either of them alone was invincible.
That said, Russia’s strategic position was altered to its detriment when facing them both in combination. She'd almost certainly lose Poland to a massive pincer attack like she did in WWI. But even so, that would hardly be fatal to Russia. Its loss would be a sharp blow though, and would allow Berlin and Vienna (and Budapest) to breathe again.
For this reason Metternich cleverly tied Prussia to Austria, since Prussia was completely defenceless without Austria in the east. The interesting thing is, Bismarck’s system was a Revised Second Edition of Metternich’s, as now Austria became tied to Germany, since Austria would be vulnerable without the Germans. It’s interesting that Bismarck’s system is practically identical to Metternich’s except that the roles were reversed.
So at first glance it would seem that Russia was putting herself at risk by moving her capital two-hundred miles west and placing it on the sea, but in actuality that’s virtually the best move she could have done. Moscow is just an “ordinary” city on a tributary of the Volga. Defensible enough, but still vulnerable to siege as any other city.
St. Petersburg was practically invulnerable. It could be reinforced and resupplied by sea from either the east or west forever, and cutting these lifelines was extraordinarily difficult. Unless one successfully navigated the channels between Kronstadt and the mainland on either side, or took Kronstadt (which is itself easily reinforced by way of Neva Bay), then the lifeline could never be severed.
But even supposing that Neva Bay could be closed, canals linking the city to Lake Ladoga allow supplies and reinforcements to arrive from the east. Rivers and canals connect Lake Ladoga to Lake Onega, which is connected to Lake Vyg and thence to the White Sea. While waterways also connect Lake Ladoga to Lake Beloye and Lake Rybinsk and thence to the Volga and the endless steppes to the South-East.
Cutting off these links would take a lot of walking along a broad front that would expose one to very dangerous overextension. Peter the Great was a genius for recognising the value of this position.
To demonstrate, the first map depicts the series of waterways connects St. Petersburg by way of the Neva-Ladoga-Svir-Onega-Vyg-White Sea and thence to the rest of the world. A backdoor route for logistical sustenance of the city to the northeast.
While the map shows how canals connect St. Petersburg by way of Neva-Ladoga-Svir-Onega-Beloye-Rybinsk-Volga-Don and thence to Moscow and ultimately the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea by way of the Volga-Don Canal. This offers another route of supply and another means of keeping communications open and offering another backdoor to sustain the city with supplies from the southeast.
This latter system was not constructed until several years after Peter’s death, not until the reign of Paul, but the addition to St. Petersburg’s strategic strength is considerable. The city would have too be severed from all directions in order to force its capitulation.
And the map is the city of St. Petersburg itself. Supplies can easily be brought in from the west, through the Baltic which connects the city with the rest of the world, or even if the Baltic is closed by a power holding the islands of Denmark, at least with Scandinavia and possibly the Baltic States/Poland/Germany. Some place with supplies anyway.
Any attempt to close the western window of St. Petersburg would be frustrated by the island of Kotlin and the fortress of Kronstadt whose guns easily control the narrow channels on either side. Forcing Kronstadt Bay by sea would consequently be extraordinarily difficult, yet failure to do so would allow the city to sustain itself with seaborne shipments of necessary revictualling.
So. in short, the city is virtually impossible to take by siege. Another advantage is that even should St. Petersburg fall, an enemy could make no use of it because Kronstadt would prevent any ships leaving or entering the harbour to supply the new occupants, while the water networks to the southeast and northeast could simply stop sending supplies.
Thus if the city were taken and the Russians forced to lay siege to retake it, the enemy could not use the advantages to sustain their garrison that the Russians enjoyed, so long as the latter retained possession of Kronstadt and the waterways to the east.
It should also be noted that the way to take the city would be to close the Baltic and the Svir. The Svir is protected by the size of Lake Ladoga which forces an opponent to go around either north or south, assuming they didn't possess a fleet on the lake, which they wouldn't. The approaches to the Svir from the north are empty of infrastructure, full of dense forests, devoid of people, and bitterly cold.
So an invasion from Finland would be difficult. It would likely be easier to cut the Baltic-White Sea water network farther north, but the results of that would yet allow supplies from the Caspian-Baltic-Black Sea waterway to reach the city. So one would have to attempt to cut the Svir from the southern approaches.
This is what the Germans attempted in the Second World War, and found it extremely tenuous because the area, besides being freezing cold in winter, is a massive marshland in summer. The region of the notorious Volkhov Swamps.
Mechanised warfare is out of the question as the ground is all morass, with large portions of it completely submerged. This entirely favours the defenders. Thus the Svir is well protected no matter how you approach it. And as long as the Svir remains open, St. Petersburg cannot fall.
The final photograph depicts German troops in the Volkhov Swamps. This is what lay between an enemy and the Svir. Forget about Blitzkrieg. Tanks would just sink. The only think getting through is men, plodding through with boots.
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